What happened
At its September 16, 2026 meeting the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points, to 3.75%–4.00%. The next scheduled meeting is October 27–28; its outcome was unknown when this was written.
That does not mean every business borrower sees a 0.25-point increase next month. Your loan agreement — not the headline — decides what happens.
How a Fed move reaches an existing loan
Many floating-rate loans use a benchmark (Prime, SOFR or another index) plus a lender spread. Some have fixed periods, floors or caps. A floating loan may reprice at its next reset date; a fixed loan generally keeps its rate for the fixed period.
The bank prime rate (7.00% on the Federal Reserve's October 23, 2026 H.15 release) is different from the federal funds target. Check which one your agreement actually references.
Illustrative payment sensitivity
A hypothetical $1,000,000 loan, fully amortizing over 10 years: at 8.00% the payment is about $12,133 a month; at 8.25% about $12,265 (+$132); at 9.00% about $12,668 (+$535). These compare new loans — modeling an existing loan needs its remaining balance, remaining term and reset schedule.
What to do this week
- List each loan's balance, rate type and next reset date
- Separate fixed obligations from rates likely to change
- Rerun cash-flow forecasts with realistic collection delays
- Check whether practice and real estate debt carry different terms and guarantees
- Wait for actual lender quotes and official decisions before acting on forecasts
Sources
Federal Reserve FOMC statement (September 16, 2026), the FOMC meeting calendar and the H.15 Selected Interest Rates release (October 23, 2026) at federalreserve.gov.
Estimates only. Results vary. No guarantee of approval, rates or savings.
Examples use hypothetical numbers. Educational content, not financial, legal or tax advice. Profit Theory is not a lender; lenders set their own requirements and make all credit decisions.